The next 8 weeks in detail

[fin]

February 2008 parameter summary for Malta 
Temperatures- 12.0C (near average) [Average 12.0C]
Rainfall- 85% (slightly below average) [Average 58mm]
Dry days- 17 (average 14)
Sunshine-115% (rather above average) [Average 7 hours per day]
Winds- near average strength and predominantly from the east or SE
Water temperature- 15.5C [Average 16C]

Summary forecast for February 2008 in Malta 

February seems likely to see near average upper thickness heights over the area at all levels however pressure may be slightly above average with high pressure to the NE generally and in that respect looks likely to be a similar month to January with a further predominance of winds from the E or SE. It seems with pressure high to the north at times, low pressure areas may move down across the central Med from NW Europe into the region and then across Greece, which usually brings pulses of cooler unstable air down across Italy and may result in a further heavy rainfall event such as in late December (which could occur at almost any time during the month but perhaps are more likely later on). Generally the increasing strength of the sun by the end of the month tends to act as a trigger for showers from colder unstable air with sea temperatures at their lowest.

Weeks 1/2

With high pressure over central Europe a generally SE?ly flow will predominate with plenty of generally fine sunny weather predominating, though a few  bursts of showery rain at times are possible to give some cloudier days as systems move across from the NW dropping SE as they do so. However, a good number of reasonably dry and sunny days seem feasible in this period and it will start to feel notably warmer in the early afternoon as the strength of the sun increases.
Near average temperatures, about 15-17C by day and 10-12C by night. Rainfall is likely to be near average in this period at about 30mm. Sunshine totals generally notably increasing, to about 5-6 hours a day on average.

Weeks 3/4

The second half of the month looks like it may continue to be fairly settled with high pressure in control much of the time or at least close enough to keep it fairly dry. We think that a couple of incursions of colder air are likely from the north west though as upper low pressure pools move east through the Mediterranean, this a seasonal trend for the winter as a whole. As they do so,  more in the way of cloudy weather with the risk of heavier rain or sharp showers developing but it will probably be dry on more than half the days. Some quite chilly nights when the fronts have gone through and cooler air from the NW is predominating.   

Temperatures staying near the monthly average; maximum values near 15-18C and rainfall probably ending up near average for this period at around 25mm. Sunshine generally increasing to about 7-8 hours per day. 

March 2008 parameter summary for Malta 
Temperatures 12.0C (slightly below average) [Average 12.5C]
Rainfall- 115% (slightly above average) [Average 41mm]
Dry days-16 (Average 19)
Sunshine-95% (slightly below average) [Average 7 hours per day]
Winds- near average strength and predominantly from the north or NW 
Water temperature 17.0C [Average 16C]

Summary forecast for March 2008 in Malta 

Initially, March looks likely to be less rather settled than the last half of February. Forecast charts suggest that upper pressure and thicknesses will be rather lower than normal to the north of the area and with any incursion of cold air south across the sea, this will produce instability especially by mid Match hence we expect a number of days where sharp showers develop. Also the other feature of the winter season where low pressure systems at the surface combined with upper cold pools move E-SE from the central Med may well continue initially in March, giving some rather longer unsettled periods with plenty of showery rain. As mentioned though even in late March the increasing strength of the sun by late March will also help trigger heavier showers, if unstable air is present.

Weeks 1/2

High pressure dominating to the north east will move away and allow rather unsettled weather during the first week with plenty of showery days and possibly a few thunderstorms too, especially in the afternoon though rainfall  amounts may vary quite widely. Winds will generally be from the east then become more northerly and rather gusty in the heavier daytime showers. Longer periods of cloud and associated heavy rain or showers may also occur as few times in the fortnight as upper cold pools work south east.
Temperatures are likely to be close to or slightly below average, about 15-18C by day and 10-12C by night. Rainfall is likely to be near average in this period at about 25mm, though rather variable in places. Sunshine will likely increase to about 7 hours a day, this mostly in the morning and early evening periods.

Weeks 3/4

Initially the second half of the month looks like it may well be quite similar to the first half, so staying rather unsettled with a lot of showers about by day. Rather cool N?ly winds look likely to predominate. Although starting clear, many days will see cloud bubble up, giving a few showers or perhaps thunderstorms, these heavy in places. The last week of March though may well see a drier spell, as high pressure takes control and hence gives some notably warmer days, with temperatures reaching 20-23C, though nights will see these higher temperatures fall quite rapidly away.   
Temperatures staying near or slightly below the monthly average; rainfall probably ending up near the average for this period at around 20mm. Sunshine increasing again to about 8 hours per day.